The Prague Post - World economy likely to avoid recession despite tariffs: IMF chief

EUR -
AED 4.313975
AFN 80.547545
ALL 97.434934
AMD 449.73046
ANG 2.102303
AOA 1077.171324
ARS 1492.791377
AUD 1.764031
AWG 2.116752
AZN 2.0016
BAM 1.955498
BBD 2.367734
BDT 143.357833
BGN 1.958424
BHD 0.442032
BIF 3495.35953
BMD 1.174668
BND 1.502568
BOB 8.102747
BRL 6.532923
BSD 1.172619
BTN 101.493307
BWP 15.744565
BYN 3.837607
BYR 23023.499991
BZD 2.355536
CAD 1.60865
CDF 3393.617337
CHF 0.926897
CLF 0.028411
CLP 1114.547663
CNY 8.403625
CNH 8.419418
COP 4775.561579
CRC 592.408399
CUC 1.174668
CUP 31.128712
CVE 110.247953
CZK 24.57048
DJF 208.817712
DKK 7.463496
DOP 71.148999
DZD 152.157473
EGP 57.684081
ERN 17.620026
ETB 163.190867
FJD 2.634488
FKP 0.873886
GBP 0.867394
GEL 3.18381
GGP 0.873886
GHS 12.254105
GIP 0.873886
GMD 84.57654
GNF 10176.42647
GTQ 9.000608
GYD 245.342064
HKD 9.220682
HNL 30.706252
HRK 7.537617
HTG 153.886205
HUF 396.850416
IDR 19217.339549
ILS 3.939608
IMP 0.873886
INR 101.616219
IQD 1536.162471
IRR 49468.226083
ISK 142.276286
JEP 0.873886
JMD 187.051077
JOD 0.832886
JPY 173.446879
KES 151.506573
KGS 102.553011
KHR 4697.273684
KMF 491.603168
KPW 1057.201531
KRW 1624.959912
KWD 0.358662
KYD 0.977249
KZT 639.001194
LAK 25279.09122
LBP 105069.953557
LKR 353.815291
LRD 235.113646
LSL 20.812382
LTL 3.468491
LVL 0.710546
LYD 6.330021
MAD 10.545169
MDL 19.72395
MGA 5179.199166
MKD 61.550483
MMK 2466.137469
MNT 4214.430294
MOP 9.481134
MRU 46.800763
MUR 53.342135
MVR 18.094285
MWK 2033.385588
MXN 21.791567
MYR 4.958867
MZN 75.131746
NAD 20.812382
NGN 1799.510154
NIO 43.153327
NOK 11.939518
NPR 162.388891
NZD 1.952022
OMR 0.45182
PAB 1.172619
PEN 4.153358
PGK 4.860248
PHP 67.132737
PKR 332.301418
PLN 4.249143
PYG 8783.641829
QAR 4.274539
RON 5.067641
RSD 117.131888
RUB 93.035614
RWF 1695.037905
SAR 4.407246
SBD 9.732239
SCR 16.61843
SDG 705.392672
SEK 11.182226
SGD 1.503815
SHP 0.923105
SLE 26.959075
SLL 24632.212956
SOS 670.196371
SRD 43.067458
STD 24313.263549
STN 24.496212
SVC 10.260413
SYP 15272.789827
SZL 20.804783
THB 38.024448
TJS 11.198868
TMT 4.123086
TND 3.423471
TOP 2.751195
TRY 47.660213
TTD 7.973767
TWD 34.632517
TZS 3004.935362
UAH 49.031718
UGX 4204.349902
USD 1.174668
UYU 46.972737
UZS 14837.70572
VES 141.281363
VND 30711.704452
VUV 139.313216
WST 3.217402
XAF 655.855588
XAG 0.030777
XAU 0.000352
XCD 3.1746
XCG 2.113373
XDR 0.815674
XOF 655.855588
XPF 119.331742
YER 283.036769
ZAR 20.886665
ZMK 10573.429114
ZMW 27.351771
ZWL 378.242735
  • RBGPF

    -1.1200

    73.88

    -1.52%

  • SCS

    0.0700

    10.58

    +0.66%

  • VOD

    -0.0900

    11.43

    -0.79%

  • CMSC

    0.0550

    22.485

    +0.24%

  • RELX

    -0.9800

    52.73

    -1.86%

  • NGG

    -0.0800

    72.15

    -0.11%

  • RYCEF

    -0.0400

    13.2

    -0.3%

  • GSK

    -0.2600

    37.97

    -0.68%

  • BTI

    -0.3700

    52.25

    -0.71%

  • RIO

    -0.7300

    63.1

    -1.16%

  • AZN

    -1.0200

    72.66

    -1.4%

  • SCU

    0.0000

    12.72

    0%

  • BCE

    -0.2300

    24.2

    -0.95%

  • BP

    0.0700

    32.2

    +0.22%

  • BCC

    1.7100

    88.14

    +1.94%

  • JRI

    -0.0600

    13.09

    -0.46%

  • CMSD

    0.0400

    22.89

    +0.17%

World economy likely to avoid recession despite tariffs: IMF chief
World economy likely to avoid recession despite tariffs: IMF chief / Photo: Jim WATSON - AFP

World economy likely to avoid recession despite tariffs: IMF chief

The global economy is likely to avoid a recession despite the hit to growth from US President Donald Trump's tariff rollout, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.

Text size:

The stop-start US tariff plans have fueled levels of market volatility unseen since the Covid-19 pandemic, and most economists expect the imposition of new import levies will stifle growth and push up inflation, at least in the short term.

Trade disruptions "incur costs," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters in Washington on Thursday, adding that the Fund now expects "notable" cuts to growth -- but no recession.

People live in a world of "sudden and sweeping shifts," she said, in a nod to the recent market volatility.

"It is a call to respond wisely," she added.

Her speech came ahead of next week's Spring Meetings -- a gathering of global financial leaders co-hosted by the IMF and the World Bank in the US capital.

Her remarks suggest the IMF will use its upcoming World Economic Report, to be published on Tuesday, to pare back its previous forecast for global growth to hit 3.3 percent in 2025 and 2026.

- 'Perceptions matter' -

Georgieva said the current tariff tensions would likely have three major consequences for the global economy, with smaller advanced economies and most emerging markets likely to be more heavily affected due to their reliance on trade for growth.

"First, uncertainty is costly," she said, adding that it becomes difficult for business to make plans if they do not know how much their inputs will cost in the future.

"Second, rising trade barriers hit growth upfront," she said, noting that "tariffs, like all taxes, raise revenue at the expense of reducing and shifting activity."

"Third observation: protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies," she said.

Georgieva called on all countries "to put their own houses in order" by -- among other things -- gradually adjusting their fiscal policies to lower debt levels when necessary, and by maintaining an "agile and credible" monetary policy with a "strong commitment" to central bank independence.

"Perceptions matter as much as reality," she said, calling on world leaders to improve citizens' perceptions of the economy amid plunging consumer confidence -- especially in the United States.

- 'More level playing field' -

Countries should also prioritize tackling internal and external macroeconomic imbalances, Georgieva said.

For China, the IMF has recommended to Beijing that it enact policies "to boost chronically low private consumption," and move the Asian giant away from its current state-supported, export-driven model of growth, she said.

The United States, she added, must work to put rapidly rising government debt "on a declining path."

And for the European Union, the focus should remain on improving competitiveness "by deepening the single market," she said.

Georgieva -- who leads an organization that has long championed free trade, privatization and more open economies -- called on the largest countries to chart a path through the current trade uncertainty.

"In trade policy, the goal must be to secure a settlement among the largest players that preserves openness and delivers a more level playing field," she said.

The aim, she added, should be "to restart a global trend toward lower tariff rates while also reducing nontariff barriers and distortions."

"We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division," she added. "And, to facilitate the transition, policies must allow private agents time to adjust and deliver."

N.Simek--TPP