The Prague Post - Alive but weakened, Iran's Khamenei faces new challenges

EUR -
AED 4.303228
AFN 81.923031
ALL 97.909719
AMD 450.171953
ANG 2.096976
AOA 1074.487442
ARS 1469.906879
AUD 1.794206
AWG 2.109136
AZN 1.999097
BAM 1.952812
BBD 2.36751
BDT 142.865081
BGN 1.956194
BHD 0.441689
BIF 3493.476377
BMD 1.171742
BND 1.499089
BOB 8.09162
BRL 6.38623
BSD 1.172657
BTN 100.430197
BWP 15.654757
BYN 3.837305
BYR 22966.148894
BZD 2.355312
CAD 1.60343
CDF 3381.648779
CHF 0.932675
CLF 0.028783
CLP 1104.543443
CNY 8.406137
CNH 8.419173
COP 4747.466217
CRC 592.777215
CUC 1.171742
CUP 31.051171
CVE 110.844284
CZK 24.62897
DJF 208.806749
DKK 7.460554
DOP 70.355427
DZD 151.979693
EGP 58.199616
ERN 17.576134
ETB 162.732892
FJD 2.633784
FKP 0.863301
GBP 0.861412
GEL 3.175237
GGP 0.863301
GHS 12.189053
GIP 0.863301
GMD 83.77774
GNF 10169.893454
GTQ 9.00046
GYD 245.007696
HKD 9.198218
HNL 30.661649
HRK 7.536664
HTG 153.898122
HUF 400.449921
IDR 19043.155705
ILS 3.925073
IMP 0.863301
INR 100.421007
IQD 1536.081823
IRR 49359.64357
ISK 143.011291
JEP 0.863301
JMD 187.151234
JOD 0.830746
JPY 171.786824
KES 151.507599
KGS 102.468664
KHR 4708.024801
KMF 492.716372
KPW 1054.5423
KRW 1612.756825
KWD 0.357885
KYD 0.977198
KZT 609.283796
LAK 25260.767597
LBP 105061.138103
LKR 352.496985
LRD 235.101302
LSL 20.85478
LTL 3.45985
LVL 0.708775
LYD 6.333688
MAD 10.551579
MDL 19.845889
MGA 5178.92726
MKD 61.542715
MMK 2460.081593
MNT 4204.866527
MOP 9.481136
MRU 46.568354
MUR 53.067974
MVR 18.04166
MWK 2033.178856
MXN 21.792886
MYR 4.981087
MZN 74.944607
NAD 20.85478
NGN 1795.296721
NIO 43.151062
NOK 11.826043
NPR 160.688716
NZD 1.952949
OMR 0.450535
PAB 1.171018
PEN 4.153238
PGK 4.916982
PHP 66.250171
PKR 333.35795
PLN 4.239311
PYG 9345.064305
QAR 4.265851
RON 5.076338
RSD 117.128528
RUB 91.628726
RWF 1694.34904
SAR 4.394767
SBD 9.768727
SCR 17.19417
SDG 703.628272
SEK 11.143369
SGD 1.500779
SHP 0.920805
SLE 26.369196
SLL 24570.854255
SOS 670.161186
SRD 43.733523
STD 24252.699675
SVC 10.259875
SYP 15235.145419
SZL 20.846682
THB 38.323037
TJS 11.262367
TMT 4.112815
TND 3.415494
TOP 2.744335
TRY 46.925742
TTD 7.955352
TWD 34.175011
TZS 3069.964632
UAH 48.977755
UGX 4209.559576
USD 1.171742
UYU 47.019267
UZS 14863.921153
VES 131.572362
VND 30626.414118
VUV 139.793453
WST 3.226231
XAF 655.821156
XAG 0.03215
XAU 0.000356
XCD 3.166692
XDR 0.815631
XOF 655.821156
XPF 119.331742
YER 283.385812
ZAR 20.926173
ZMK 10547.081684
ZMW 28.405116
ZWL 377.300539
  • CMSC

    0.0900

    22.314

    +0.4%

  • CMSD

    0.0250

    22.285

    +0.11%

  • RBGPF

    0.0000

    69.04

    0%

  • SCS

    0.0400

    10.74

    +0.37%

  • RELX

    0.0300

    53

    +0.06%

  • RIO

    -0.1400

    59.33

    -0.24%

  • GSK

    0.1300

    41.45

    +0.31%

  • NGG

    0.2700

    71.48

    +0.38%

  • BP

    0.1750

    30.4

    +0.58%

  • BTI

    0.7150

    48.215

    +1.48%

  • BCC

    0.7900

    91.02

    +0.87%

  • JRI

    0.0200

    13.13

    +0.15%

  • VOD

    0.0100

    9.85

    +0.1%

  • BCE

    -0.0600

    22.445

    -0.27%

  • RYCEF

    0.1000

    12

    +0.83%

  • AZN

    -0.1200

    73.71

    -0.16%

Alive but weakened, Iran's Khamenei faces new challenges
Alive but weakened, Iran's Khamenei faces new challenges / Photo: - - IRIB NEWS AGENCY/AFP

Alive but weakened, Iran's Khamenei faces new challenges

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has re-emerged after the war with Israel but faces a struggle to maintain the authority he has wielded over the Islamic republic in over three-and-a-half decades of rule, analysts say.

Text size:

After days of silence, Khamenei appeared on Thursday in a video address to proclaim "victory" and prove he is still alive following the 12-day conflict with Israel which ended with a truce earlier this week.

But Khamenei, appointed Iran's number one and spiritual leader for life in 1989, spoke softly and hoarsely in the address, without the charismatic oratory for which he is known.

Whereas his regular interventions before the war usually took place in public in front of an audience, this message was filmed against a plain backdrop of curtains and a picture of revolutionary founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

This may indicate he could still be in hiding after Israel refused to rule out seeking to assassinate him.

On Thursday, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz told media that the military would have killed Khamenei during the war if the opportunity had presented itself.

"If he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out," Katz told Israel's public radio station Kan, adding that the military had "searched a lot".

But in the end, the conflict did not trigger the removal of the system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Still, it enabled Israel to demonstrate military superiority and deep intelligence penetration of Iran by killing key members of Khamenei's inner circle in targeted strikes.

The war was also the latest in a series of setbacks over the last year for Khamenei.

These include the downgrading of pro-Tehran militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah in conflicts with Israel and the fall of Iran's ally in Syria Bashar al-Assad, against the background of economic crisis and energy shortages at home.

"At this time, the regime does not seem to be on the verge of falling but it is certainly more vulnerable than it has been since the early years after the revolution," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa.

- 'Diminished figure' -

"The authority of the supreme leader has therefore certainly been undermined," Juneau told AFP.

"Even though his position remains secure, in that there is unlikely to be a direct challenge to his rule for now, he has lost credibility and bears direct responsibility for the Islamic republic's major losses."

Khamenei is 86 and suffers the effects of a 1981 assassination attempt in Tehran which paralysed his right arm, a disability he has never made any attempt to hide.

But discussion of succession has remained taboo in Iran, even if Western analysts have long eyed his son Mojtaba as a possible -- but far from inevitable -- contender.

Arash Azizi, visiting fellow at Boston University, said Khamenei looked "frail and weak" in his televised message in "a far cry from the grand orator we know".

"It's clear that he is a diminished figure, no longer authoritative and a shadow of his former self," he said.

"Power in Tehran is already passing to different institutions and factions and the battle for his succession will only intensify in the coming period."

Khamenei has come through crises before, using the state's levers of repression, most recently during the 2022-2023 protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurd detained for allegedly breaching Iran's strict dress code for women.

Rights activists say hundreds of people have been arrested in a new crackdown in the wake of the conflict.

- 'Sidelined'? -

The New York Times and Iran International, a Persian-language television channel based outside Iran that is critical of the authorities, have said Khamenei spent the war in a bunker avoiding use of digital communication for fear of being tracked and assassinated.

Iran International reported that Khamenei was not even involved in the discussions that led to the truce which were handled by the national security council and President Masoud Pezeshkian. There has been no confirmation of this claim.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at the US-based United Against Nuclear Iran, said Khamenei appeared "frail and hoarse" and also "detached from reality" in insisting that Iran's nuclear programme did not suffer significant damage.

"Nevertheless, I remain sceptical of the theories that Khamenei has been sidelined," he told AFP.

"I have no doubt the war will prompt a debate within the Islamic Republic's political elite as to how best to rebuild the system's capabilities, but in the end, the buck has always stopped with Khamenei," he said.

E.Cerny--TPP